In normal times, the baseline probability of a recession in any given 12-month window is around 20%. Every major forecaster ...

Goldman sees encouraging signs in the latest jobs report, and predicts oil prices will stabilize around $90 by year-end.

Quick Read S&P 500 reached fresh all-time highs on stronger-than-expected earnings growth and mega-cap technology companies ...

Recessions are not predictable with precision. But they are priceable, and at 40% to 50% probability, the risk deserves portfolio-level attention. The investors best positioned for whatever happens ...

Sharp drop in 2026 risk: Recession probability for 2026 fell to 17.5% amid easing oil prices and record S&P 500 highs. Why 2027 looks tougher: Rising debt servicing costs, persistent inflation, and ...

Moody's recession model is flashing a warning signal that a recession could be around the corner -- and that was before oil ...

(ticker: GS) recently raised its recession probability to 30%, up five percentage points. Meanwhile, BlackRock Inc. (BLK) is ...

Renowned independent investment strategist Ed Yardeni, the President of Yardeni Research, has lowered his U.S. recession probability while raising his S&P 500 target following the trade deal with ...

When President Donald Trump announced his sweeping tariff plans a couple of months ago, economists at J.P. Morgan put the probability of a U.S. recession at 60% because of the prospect of a global ...

Though Wall Street is flush with catalysts, investors may be ignoring the biggest one -- the U.S. economy. A predictive tool used by Federal Reserve Bank of New York paints a potentially troublesome ...

NEW YORK - JUNE 10: People wait in line to enter the Diversity Job Fair at the Affinia Hotel June 10, 2008 in New York City. "The disconnect is not complacency about energy prices," macro analyst ...